Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 11.739801 13.442987 15.272567 17.379982 19.736182 22.285085 25.246697
2025-10-05 9.472418 11.843143 14.582989 17.966351 22.013604 26.680279 32.447751
2025-10-12 8.246201 10.911386 14.138755 18.302173 23.494783 29.718811 37.700708
2025-10-19 7.096177 9.895340 13.433408 18.182156 24.330406 31.957357 42.060639
2025-10-26 6.189690 9.042969 12.788403 17.992306 24.950759 33.839779 45.942590
2025-11-02 5.525633 8.425589 12.365852 18.014076 25.787803 35.980043 50.196553
2025-11-09 5.016660 7.957881 12.082808 18.166201 26.759796 38.292566 54.728256
2025-11-16 4.519185 7.448602 11.684264 18.102908 27.396714 40.145655 58.683324
2025-11-23 4.063625 6.951249 11.251207 17.938820 27.851793 41.734261 62.304158
2025-11-30 3.740442 6.623095 11.034003 18.059612 28.698321 43.878601 66.756277
2025-12-07 3.544504 6.476382 11.074459 18.556814 30.105376 46.860217 72.492433
2025-12-14 3.207849 6.064358 10.664898 18.325229 30.391229 48.207929 75.899199
2025-12-21 2.779084 5.459732 9.907788 17.506245 29.747019 48.175546 77.318019
2025-12-28 2.651259 5.368560 9.983934 18.026608 31.209970 51.355196 83.636888
2026-01-04 2.507179 5.232337 9.969613 18.388373 32.425466 54.189449 89.517227
2026-01-11 2.294436 4.947587 9.676482 18.259104 32.831855 55.777639 93.534152
2026-01-18 2.094158 4.665713 9.364517 18.071616 33.121859 57.179356 97.292868
2026-01-25 1.943432 4.465233 9.181709 18.092389 33.751175 59.131654 101.968962
2026-02-01 1.824065 4.315616 9.079520 18.245473 34.604329 61.465633 107.318021
2026-02-08 1.687090 4.115574 8.866639 18.181804 35.073865 63.181404 111.717987
2026-02-15 1.550223 3.901404 8.609422 18.017141 35.351571 64.579939 115.634584
2026-02-22 1.457503 3.773639 8.510221 18.138374 36.134771 66.840559 121.026657
2026-03-01 1.411696 3.746199 8.608077 18.637467 37.615105 70.323806 128.548428